The U.S. economy is expected to fare well in 2025, according to economists from across the spectrum, with few headwinds anticipated. However, forecasters are predicting only small gains in the real estate market, as interest rates remain stubbornly in +6% territory and inventory continues to show only modest improvement.
Investment firms Goldman Sachs and Charles Schwab are particularly optimistic about the potential for growth and expansion in the economy in the coming year. Goldman Sachs Research (GSR) predicts GDP growth will reach 2.5% for 2025. “The US economy is in a good place,” said David Mericle, chief U.S. economist in GSR. “Recession fears have diminished, inflation is trending back toward 2%, and the labor market has rebalanced but remains strong.”
Internationally, Charles Schwab research envisions consistent 3% growth across the board in 2025, despite trade war concerns emanating from the threat of increased tariffs.
“Not one of the top 45 economies in the world are expected to be in recession next year,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, Managing Director, Chief Global Investment Strategist in a Dec. 2 release. “Most are expected to grow faster in 2025, including Europe, Japan, Canada, and the U.K., according to the latest outlook from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the consensus of economist forecasts tracked by Bloomberg.”
While all of this should point to an improving housing market, there are still plenty of headwinds for consumers, including the elevated cost of living in general, as well as a tight housing market that has kept prices from moderating despite dwindling sales over the past year. That is not expected to change heading into 2025.
Recent data indicators, including resilient employment and cooling inflation, point to a stronger economic foundation, especially if interest rates moderate in 2025.
The Consumer Price Index rose 2.6% through October, up from 2.4% in the September data, but moderate compared to the peak of 9.1%. Employment has been surprisingly resilient with an unexpected jump in jobs numbers in September after a sluggish summer. And although jobs bottomed out in October due to two hurricanes and several significant labor strikes, the economy quickly rebounded by adding a healthy 227,000 jobs in November.
The continued strength of the economy has allayed some consumer fears, opening the door to the potential for increasing home sales in 2025.
Consumer Confidence
Although inflation has diminished consistently through 2024, persistent elevated prices from two years of high inflation continued to contribute to consumer frustration. As job growth lagged over the summer, consumers became increasingly pessimistic, but according to The Conference Board, that tide is beginning to turn.
“Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “November’s increase was driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years.”
The question foremost in the minds of real estate professionals is will all of this good news result in a stronger real estate market in 2025.
Interest rates hold the key to 2025 housing market
On Sept. 18, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a widely expected .5% point rate cut, saying it reflected the agency’s “growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%.”
More significantly, Powell noted that FOMC participants at the meeting prepared individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate, determining that if the economy evolves as expected, the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be 4.4% at the end of this year and 3.4% at the end of 2025.
The FOMC followed up with a 0.25% rate cut in November. However, during the December meeting, policymakers signaled a more restrained outlook for future rate cuts, reflecting concerns about inflation and broader economic conditions. The updated “dot plot” now indicates expectations for only two quarter-point cuts in 2025, marking a slower pace of monetary easing than previously anticipated.
Despite the Fed’s actions, mortgage rates have remained elevated, hovering around 6.5% through the final quarter of the year. This persistence in higher rates has further tempered expectations for the housing market.
In its Nov. 26 forecast report, Freddie Mac noted that while the U.S. economy remained resilient with strong Q3 growth, unexpected volatility in mortgage rates has weighed on housing and mortgage activity.
“As we get into 2025, we anticipate that rates will gradually decline throughout the year,” the GSE reported. “The expected decline in mortgage rates in 2025 should loosen some of the rate lock-in effect for existing homeowners, offering more inventory in the market.”
However, in its November Spotlight Report, Freddie Mac noted that the housing market continues to be plagued by a housing shortfall, which has persisted for years.
“Housing affordability remains one of the top economic issues facing American households,” the GSE noted. “Both homeowners and renters have seen the cost of housing increase faster than other consumer prices, putting a significant strain on household budgets. As we have documented in several previous research notes, the root cause of decreased housing affordability is the fact that housing supply has not increased enough to match demand. Inadequate housing supply leads homeowners and renters to bid up the sale price and rent of available housing, which puts a squeeze on affordability.”
Fannie Mae has also revised its home sales projections for 2025, saying they are expected to rise by only 4% next year. According to the November 2024 commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. the downward revision to the existing home sales outlook, which was previously forecast to rise 11% in 2025, is the result of significant upward movement in mortgage rates.
“Whereas previously the ESR Group had expected mortgage rates to dip below 6% in early 2025, the revised forecast now shows mortgage rates ending 2025 at 6.3% and remaining above 6% through 2026,” the report noted. “The ESR Group does expect a significant improvement in existing home sales of around 17% in its inaugural 2026 forecast, as affordability conditions improve, the lock-in effect weakens, and pent-up demand to move materializes. Furthermore, the ESR Group continues to expect new home sales to improve on already-robust levels in both 2025 and 2026, as homebuilders continue to offer buyers incentives to move existing inventories.”
A changing market
For real estate agents, the volatility of the 2024 real estate market was compounded by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement, which brought significant changes to real estate practices. While these changes led many part-time agents to exit the profession, full-time professionals have quickly adapted and are ready to move forward under the new system.
In the mortgage arena, lenders have encouraged their loan officers to become far more consultative with their clients to ensure borrowers have the tools and knowledge to make the best decisions about the range of home they can afford and to be prepared to increase their downpayment to make their monthly payments more affordable.
Affordability and availability are going to be the keynote for a real estate comeback in communities across the U.S. in 2025 due to high interest rates and the persistent escalation of home prices. Migration trends may shift from states impacted by environmental disasters or housing markets that are overpriced to areas that boast affordability, availability and with fewer downsides such as high taxes and climate impact.
Real estate professionals should stay vigilant and adapt to these evolving trends within their regions, positioning themselves to better navigate market challenges and seize emerging opportunities in 2025 and beyond.
It’s hard to believe that it has already been one year since Alliant National and our technology partners launched SecureMyTransaction in response to the urgent need for robust, scalable fraud prevention and identity verification tools. Over the last year, many of you have provided feedback on our service, and I am humbled by the stories I’ve heard about how SecureMyTransaction has helped defend against fraud. Seller impersonation, vacant property fraud, wire fraud, and deed and document forgeries are deeply damaging to our industry and the consumers we serve, and I sincerely thank you for your valuable input.
Thanks in large part to your help and support, I am proud to share two significant updates regarding SecureMyTransaction.
First, the American Land Title Association (ALTA) has announced today that SecureMyTransaction has achieved ALTA Elite Provider status. As part of that process, SMT was rigorously vetted as a provider and received recommendations from ALTA members. This designation is an important milestone and affirms SMT’s effectiveness in helping agents respond to increasingly sophisticated fraud schemes.
Second, we’re excited to announce that this week, SMT is being updated to include new features allowing you to customize the user experience with your branding, the branding of your real estate partners, and even lenders. This includes incorporating your logos, contact information, and messaging for a seamless, integrated ID verification experience that reflects your unique business style. With this added ability to customize the platform, SMT not only offers protection but also supports brand visibility and business growth.
We remain committed to growing and enhancing SecureMyTransaction, and your feedback will guide our efforts. You can also follow updates at SecureMyTransaction.com.
If you have thoughts or questions about SecureMyTransaction, please reach out to me or any member of our team.
Build out your SWOT for a complete picture of your business.
As any business leader knows, there is a huge difference between having an idea for your business and bringing it to fruition. One way to increase your chances of success is to utilize what’s known as a SWOT analysis. SWOTs bring increased visibility to your operations, while providing an honest assessment of your company’s capabilities. The exercise’s insights can then be used for more informed decision-making. Let’s explore what’s involved in doing this work and doing it right.
What is SWOT?
The “SWOT” in “SWOT analysis” is an acronym for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. Here’s some additional detail on each point:
Strengths are everything you have going for you with your business. This can include things like a strong balance sheet, top talent or a high net promoter score.
Weaknesses are the opposite. They can include high turnover, significant customer churn or outdated and inefficient technology.
Opportunities involve industry trends that you can capitalize on. Some examples are regulatory changes, strategic partnerships or positive changes in customer behavior.
Threats include anything that might imperil your business in the short and long term. Threats could be negative economic forecasts, supply chain disruptions or new competitors in the market.
Create your dream team
The first thing to realize about doing a SWOT is that it’s pretty difficult to pull off alone. No business leader is going to know everything about their organization. You need a team with you that has first-hand knowledge of each aspect of your business. Include different department heads and stakeholders from both in and outside of your company.
Dig into the data
Next, begin collecting data – and lots of it. Compile information on internal processes, review existing resources and pull up any performance metrics you have on hand. Some specific examples could include:
Financial reports
Brand recognition data
Customer reviews
Employee feedback
Draw conclusions and establish your matrix
Once you’ve gathered these insights, start identifying your company’s strengths and weaknesses. Drill down on what is working well and pay attention to any unique selling propositions. Then, do the reverse and look at what is not working. Be open and transparent here. It is the only way to get an accurate picture of what might prevent you from achieving your goals. Next, catalog opportunities and threats. Write down anything that might enable or prevent you from taking your business where you want it to go in the near and long term.
Now organize your thoughts via a SWOT matrix. It’s often easiest to group elements by: 1.)internal factors, that is, your strengths and weaknesses, followed by 2.) external factors, also known as your opportunities and threats.
Analyze your results and plan for action
You can then start putting together an action plan to achieve your organizational objectives, armed with the knowledge that you have an informed outlook on your business’s prospects. Be sure your plan works in unison with your SWOT. When done right, your plan’s strategies, tactics and decision points will grow organically out of your matrix.
Moving forward
Like any piece of strategic planning collateral, always remember a SWOT is a living document. As your business changes or the market shifts, don’t forget to update your analysis so it remains accurate and helpful. That way, you will always have a powerful tool on hand that will help you see your business clearly and make more strategic decisions.
The economy remains on track as we head into the closing months of 2024, with inflation subsiding under the Federal Reserve’s tight management and employment remaining surprisingly resilient, though softening in recent months.
On the real estate front, high interest rates and low inventory have stymied the industry, with new single-family home sales plunging 11.3% in May and existing sales falling to an annualized rate of 3.89 million in June, a two-month period that normally sees accelerated buying trends.
The hoped-for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve that might have given the market a boost in the coming months have not materialized, with Treasury Secretary Jerome Powell announcing on July 31 that the federal funds rate would stay put at 5.25-5.5% for the near term, while holding out hope that there may be some downward movement before years’ end.
“FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate, based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward,” Powell said in his report. “If the economy evolves as expected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 5.1% at the end of this year, 4.1% at the end of 2025, and 3.1% at the end of 2026. But these projections are not a Committee plan or any kind of a decision.”
In his comments, Powell acknowledged that while the Fed is not yet confident enough to pull back from their efforts to control inflation, reducing policy restraint too late or too little could have an undue negative impact on economic activity and employment. That fear seemed to come to fruition when the July jobs report came in weaker than expected, sending Wall Street into a tailspin on August 2nd as fears of recession escalated in the financial community. However, markets have largely recovered since that drop.
In a reaction to the U.S. Commerce Department report on Q2 GDP, MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni acknowledged several components in the report indicating a potential slowdown for the economy but also pointed to positive signs in the recent inflation data that he hoped “would provide enough confidence for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September.”
While that remains to be seen, consumer confidence, interest rates, home sales, and new home construction remain in limbo, subduing hopes for any substantial real estate boost this year.
Consumer confidence shows signs of improvement
Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said that consumer confidence increased in July but remained in a narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. “Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about rising prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year,” she said.
Interest rates staying put
It remains to be seen if a slowing economy will kickstart a movement towards lowering fed funds rates in the near term, but interest rates have remained in the sub-7% range this summer after reaching 8.5% in October 2023. According to the Freddie Mac economists’ July outlook, interest rates are expected to stay above 6.5% through the end of the year. Fannie Mae is also forecasting interest rates to remain at 6.8% through the end of the year, falling back only slightly to 6.4% in 2025, leaving little hope for the recovery that was so optimistically anticipated at the outset of the year.
Home price growth could pull back
According to the July 2024 commentary from the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group, home price growth in the second quarter was stronger than previously anticipated but will likely moderate soon, closing 2024 and 2025 at annual rates of 6.1% and 3.0%, respectively. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast concurs, indicating in its July report that home prices are expected to rise only 3% on a year-over-year basis from May 2024 to May 2025.
New home sales soften, existing home sales improve slightly
According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau, sales of newly built, single-family homes in June fell 0.6% to a 617,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from a slight upwardly revised reading in May. The pace of new home sales is down 7.4% from a year earlier.
Jing Fu, NAHB director of forecasting and analysis, reported in July that new home inventory in June remained elevated at a 9.3 months’ supply.
“At the current building pace, there is still a long-run need for more construction because existing inventory remains relatively low,” he said. “Due to a lack of resale homes for sale, the combined inventory for new and existing single-family homes remains lean at a 4.7 months’ supply, according to NAHB estimates.”
After a lackluster May and June, pending home sales rose 4.8% in June, according to the National Association of Realtors, but the numbers remain low compared to past years.
Broader outlook murky
Across the board, economic and housing forecasts remain tentative and conservative, as economists keep an eye on a host of uncertain elements, including the volatility of the global economy, the Federal Reserve’s tight fiscal policy, a jittery stock market, and an era of consumer pessimism. However, should the Federal Reserve begin interest rate cuts in September as hoped for, many of these issues could ease considerably, opening the door for a more promising final quarter.
Millennials and Gen Z are entering the housing market in greater numbers, and it’s a big opportunity for title agents, particularly given the static housing market. It’s no secret that real estate sales were down in 2023, and that trend has continued throughout the first part of 2024. Capturing the pent-up demand of younger buyers is one way to overcome market challenges and boost profitability. But success hinges on shifting your mindset and adopting the right tools and strategies. Here’s how to do it across a few key marketing channels.
The long road to homeownership for Millennials and Gen Z
For many Millennials, it has been a difficult road to homeownership, and not because of eating too much avocado toast.[i] The 2007 financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession is one reason why Millennial homeownership has often lagged their generational predecessors. The picture has changed, however, in recent years. Nearly 40% of new home buyers are now Millennials. The generation also makes up the highest percentage of first-time buyers, increasing their proportion from 70% to 75% over the past year.[ii] Not to be outdone is Gen Z. Data shows that 30% of 25-year-olds are homeowners – 3% higher than their Gen X parents when they were the same age.[iii] While Gen Z currently only makes up 4% of national homebuyers, major subsections such as single women are trending higher than other generations.[iv]
Social media
Let’s begin exploring how to reach these folks by looking first at social media. Why? Well, because it is perhaps the single most important channel for marketing to younger buyers. More than 1 in 4 Millennials use social media to find products and services, and nearly half use different social platforms to conduct research.[v] Blogs circulated via social are even more popular, with 1 in 3 relying on blogs to inform purchasing decisions.[vi] By developing your social presence and incorporating best practices like short-form video, you can amplify your impact and grow your brand.
Mobile friendliness
These days, having a mobile-friendly online presence is a must, especially if you are trying to reach Millennials and Gen Z. Research shows that over 96% of internet users ages 16-64 own a smartphone[vii] and nearly 62% of all website traffic comes from mobile.[viii] Stats like these don’t even speak to the popularity of apps geared toward mobile users. Data shows Gen Z currently spends between 24-48 hours per month on TikTok – which amounts to approximately 24 full days every year![ix]
What does this mean for title agencies? Just put yourself in the mindset of a consumer! Let’s say title agency #1 has a website that looks great on your mobile device while title agency #2 website does not. Which one would you think is going to take care of your closing needs more effectively? I suspect you already know the answer.
Online reviews
One characteristic of younger generations is that they grew up using review sites like Yelp, Google, Foursquare, etc. This trend has continued to the present day. For example, 86% of Gen Z reads reviews ahead of making a first-time purchase.[x] Data like this means your agency must establish a presence on review sites and stay active by responding to user comments and complaints. The benefits of doing so are two-fold. You will become more visible to younger users. And you will showcase that you are a responsive, reliable company committed to their satisfaction.
Partnerships
Even in a digital-first economy like ours, good old word-of-mouth marketing still can’t be beaten. One of the best ways to build positive buzz for your brand is by developing relationships with the real estate agents who guide customers through the home-buying process.
Final thoughts
As anyone involved in real estate knows, this industry is always changing. The rise of Millennial and Gen Z home buyers is just one recent development. By getting digitally savvy, meeting these younger buyers where they are, and making an honest effort to create positive word-of-mouth, you can capture their business and grow your own profitability.
