Kane-Mackenzie will help lead Alliant National’s operations in the region.
Longmont, CO — (January 16, 2024) — Alliant National Title Insurance Company, the title insurer that is uniquely responsive to the needs of independent agents, is pleased to announce the hiring of Theresa Kane-Mackenzie as AVP & State Agency Manager PA & NJ.
Kane-Mackenzie comes to Alliant National with over 25 years of experience in the real estate and title insurance industries. She has worked for companies ranging from national underwriters to providers of specialized technology solutions for title insurers. She also brings along vast expertise in underwriting, real estate technology, title production, continuing education and customer service. By pairing this industry knowledge with her person-centered approach throughout her career, Kane-Mackenzie has gained unique insight into the market and routinely delivered the best possible results for Pennsylvania and New Jersey title agents.
At Alliant National, Kane-Mackenzie will be at the helm of the company’s operations and expansion efforts throughout Pennsylvania and New Jersey. She will work collaboratively with policy-issuing agents to strengthen and streamline their procedures, processes, and workflows. She will also assist with business planning and continuing education initiatives. In keeping with Alliant National’s mission, Kane-Mackenzie will channel these activities toward empowering independent title agents to grow their businesses while increasing the company’s market share in the region.
“With her 25+ years of experience in both agency and vendor relations, Theresa is a tremendous addition to our regional agency team,” said Manoj Purohit, Senior Vice President, Great Lakes Regional Manager for Alliant National Title Insurance Company, in discussing her hiring. “She will be an integral part of our expansion into the Pennsylvania and New Jersey markets, and we are excited to have her at Alliant National.”
“It is a pleasure to join Alliant National as it grows its presence across Pennsylvania and New Jersey,” said Kane-Mackenzie. “Since it began operating in 2005, Alliant National has become the premier independent underwriter for the independent agent. I am looking forward to becoming part of this team of incredible title professionals and delivering business gains for our policy-issuing agents.”
Kane-Mackenzie is an active member of the Pennsylvania Land Title Association (PLTA). She has previously served on the board of several trade and philanthropic organizations. She currently lives in New Jersey with her family.
Alliant National supports its independent agents by combining expert residential and commercial underwriting with a passionate heart for service. The company delivers uncommon help that promotes the well-being of agents and the communities they serve.
Alliant National is on a mission to empower independent agents while protecting property owners with secure title insurance. The company partners with its agents and never competes against them with direct or affiliate operations. Alliant National serves thousands of title professionals as a licensed underwriter in 32 states and the District of Columbia.
Alliant National’s Crime Watch Program is a great example of the old saying that the best defense is a good offense. Designed to incentivize Alliant National’s policy-issuing agents to detect and prevent fraud, the program had a banner year during 2023. Working together, Alliant National’s network of agents prevented scores of fraudulent transactions from going forward over the past 12 months. These efforts not only protected against sizable losses but helped promote a safer and more secure industry. Now that the year has wrapped up, let’s dig into the numbers.
A problem of incredible scope
With property information readily available with a click of the mouse, it is easier than ever for bad actors to research and identify potential targets. The result has naturally been a huge uptick in criminal activity over the last few years. In fact, FBI data indicates that “more than 13,000 people were victims of wire fraud in the real estate and rental sector in 2020, with losses of more than $213 million — an increase of 380% since 2017.”[i]
Fighting fraud requires all hands on deck
To help empower independent agents and assist the title industry in combating fraud, Alliant National initiated its Crime Watch Program several years ago. The initiative rewards agents $1,000 each time they prevent a fraudulent transaction – and the results have been impressive. Year after year, Alliant National’s agents have helped stem the tide of criminals targeting the industry, identifying fraudulent behavior and saving consumers from financial loss and unnecessary stress.
During the program’s lifespan, we’ve seen a number of best practices to help prevent fraud:
Never accept wire instructions over email.
Double-check all contact information. Then, check it again.
Always send wire instructions through a secure, encrypted communication channel.
Pay particular attention to any last-minute changes with a transaction, especially with wire transfer information.
Speak directly to clients to make sure they are who they say they are.
Become as familiar as you can with the history of the property you’re working with and watch for any irregularities.
Stay current with all continuing education classes to remain apprised of the latest developments in title fraud and cybercrime.
Trust your gut when something feels off and work closely with colleagues to have a unified front against fraudsters.
Use real world examples of fraudulent activity to educate colleagues or employees on how to spot fraud.
Have a response plan in place if a fraudster is able to get around your agency’s defenses.
2023 was a successful year of fraud busting
For Alliant National’s Crime Watch Program in 2023, past successes were prelude to a tremendous year of fraud busting. Collectively, agents identified and prevented over 25 instances of fraud, totaling more than $280 million in proposed liability. The agents involved in stopping these fraudsters came from a variety of states – including Florida, Missouri and Texas – and the specifics of each fraudulent transaction also ran the gamut. Some of the top schemes encountered by agents included:
Business email compromise
Seller impersonation
Fraudulent contracts
Fraudulent documents like passports
Fraudulent cashiers’ checks
Let’s stop fraudsters in 2024
Everyone has their own New Years’ resolutions, but for the title insurance industry, one of the most important should be taking all available actions to detect and ultimately prevent fraud. Since the inception of Alliant National’s crime watch program, we have seen how powerful it is when agents proactively address suspicious transactions. While not all fraud can be prevented, the program is a testament to what the industry can do when it unites against criminals.
Want to learn more about Alliant National’s crime watch program and how your agency can get rewarded for stopping fraudsters? Start here.
The overall economy is expected to fare well in 2024 according to experts from across the spectrum, but the dramatic drop seen in real estate sales, coupled with a virtually non-existent refinance market, will likely keep title orders depressed.
The macro-economic picture has certainly brightened in recent months as an anticipated recession failed to materialize in 2023. Now forecasters are increasingly calling for a “soft landing” in 2024. Goldman Sachs is especially optimistic, projecting U.S. GDP growth to hit 2.1% in 2024 compared to other economists who see growth in the 1-1.8% range for the year.
“It was fair to wonder last year whether labor market overheating and an at times unsettling high inflation mindset could be reversed painlessly,” said David Mericle, Goldman Sachs Research chief US economist, in a recent economic report. “But these problems now look largely solved, the conditions for inflation to return to target are in place, and the heaviest blows from monetary and fiscal tightening are well behind us.”
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM, a global network of independent assurance, tax and consulting firms, sees a slow first quarter for GDP, followed by an uptick to 1.8% in the second half of 2024 and accelerating into 2025.
“We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for strong productivity and growth in the years ahead as inflation eases back to a much more tolerable range,” Brusuelas said in his 2024 outlook report in the December edition of The Real Economy.
While all indications point to economic fundamentals being strong enough to keep the overall U.S. economy on stable ground in 2024, real estate sales are likely to remain stagnant due to low consumer confidence, high interest rates and lack of inventory. The refinance market will be in the same boat, as current mortgage holders will likely be unwilling to relinquish their low interest rates.
Consumer confidence
Viewed through a consumer lens, The Conference Board remains pessimistic, noting in its November forecast that the economy is likely to buckle early in the year, leading to a short and shallow recession.
“This outlook is associated with numerous factors, including elevated inflation, high interest rates, dissipating pandemic savings, rising consumer debt, and the resumption of mandatory student loan repayments,” they noted. “We forecast that real GDP will grow by 2.4% in 2023, and then fall to 0.8% in 2024.”
On the upside, consumer confidence was up 2.9% in November after three months of decline. The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, however, fell to 46 in Q4 2023, down from 48 in the third quarter, as most business leaders are also anticipating a mild recession in early 2024.
Interest rates keep real estate in deep freeze
With interest rates hovering near 7% as we begin the New Year, prospective homebuyers will continue to face a double conundrum in 2024:
High interest rates have put many listed properties in the unaffordable range; and
Fewer homes are coming on the market as homeowners with low rates are staying put.
Some relief is on the horizon as homebuilders remain cautiously in the market to fill the supply gap. Many regions of the country are reporting strong new home sales, as homebuyers ready and willing to invest drift away from the paltry supply of existing homes to the new home market.
Freddie Mac statistics support this idea, with the GSE reporting that existing home sales were at their lowest level in 13 years in the month of September, but new home sales were showing remarkable resilience.
“New home sales have taken on increased importance for the housing market as the share of total home sales that are new increased to 16.1%, the highest share since 2005,” Freddie Mac reported. “The U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that new home sales in September 2023 were at an annualized rate of 759,000, up 12.3% from August and 33.9% from September 2022. Overall, the inventory of new homes for sale has decreased 5.4% from last year.”
One nugget of encouragement came following the December FOMC meeting when the Federal Reserve signaled the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024. However, any cuts are likely to have only a marginal impact on home sales in 2024, as these cuts will come in small increments through the course of the year. Moreover, rate cuts are far from assured, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in his remarks in December that interest rate increases are unlikely, but not off the table.
“If the economy evolves as projected, the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6 percent at the end of 2024, 3.6% at the end of 2025, and 2.9% at the end of 2026, still above the median longer-term rate,” Powell said. “These projections are not a Committee decision or plan; if the economy does not evolve as projected, the path for policy will adjust as appropriate to foster our maximum employment and price stability goals.”
Navigating the market
Interest rates, while high, are not in uncharted territory and homebuyers in the past have learned how to navigate higher interest rates through a plethora of tactics.
Real estate agents and loan officers who are knowledgeable and consultative with their customers may find a way forward by assisting their prospective homebuyers with a range of options, such as:
Moderating expectations towards more affordable homes
Encouraging buyers to increase downpayments to lower their monthly payments
Educating borrowers about alternative products such as adjustable-rate mortgages
Negotiating seller concessions
Working with homebuilders to moderate costs in new home construction
Of course, none of these approaches mitigates supply constraints. Luring home sellers who are locked into mortgages in the 3-4% range back into the market is going to continue to be a challenge until overall rates begin to moderate.
Keeping an eye on fundamentals
As we enter 2024, mortgage, real estate and title professionals will have their eyes on some additional key economic fundamentals − both nationally and locally − as they navigate the slow market.
Job market
Although the job market has slowed in recent months, the outlook remains strong for stable employment in 2024, with some anticipation of a modest increase in unemployment. Regional variations are likely to have some impact on the real estate outlook in specific markets.
Consumer spending
According to Goldman Sachs, real disposable income is forecast to grow nearly 3% in 2024. Solid job growth, real wage growth and an increase in interest income could keep consumer spending strong. However, forecasters with the US Chamber of Commerce report that consumers are increasingly depleting their pandemic savings and increasing credit card debt to support a faster pace of spending.
Business investment
High interest rates that are hampering the real estate market are also likely to weigh on business investment in 2024. However, if recessionary fears continue to abate, this may increasingly become a non-issue in 2024.
Final thoughts
If interest rates begin to moderate in the latter part of 2024, real estate sales could improve. In fact, there’s evidence that Millennials who have delayed household formations and homeownership could, at some point, represent a source of pent−up market demand. However, the specter of even a mild recession coupled with diminished consumer savings so necessary for a downpayment, growing credit card debt, lack of affordable housing, and high interest rates could delay a real estate market comeback well into 2025, especially for first-time homebuyers.
Brick City Title, a full-service title insurance agency, is a loyal member of the Ocala, Florida, business community and dedicated to protecting the integrity of its customers’ transactions. This commitment served them well recently when a fraudulent transaction came across the desks of two of the agency’s title professionals. By working together and proactively communicating with other transaction stakeholders, the agency foiled the fraudster and received recognition through Alliant National’s crime watch program, which offers a $1,000 reward to agents who help prevent a fraudulent transaction from closing.
A suspicious package
When the package first arrived from the buyer, Brick City Title’s Gina Preston and Cherie Breitenbecker felt like it was a step in the right direction. For some time, their agency had been attempting to collect a deposit from a cash buyer of a residential property who claimed to be conducting the deal through a trust.
Any positive feelings quickly dissipated, however, once they opened the parcel. While the sales contract for the transaction was included, there was no form of currency. Instead, the buyer had tucked several postal stamps inside the package.
Alarm bells
Naturally, receiving such a bizarre item immediately set off alarm bells for Preston and Breitenbecker, especially since Brick City Title had repeatedly clarified to the buyer about which forms of payment the agency could accept. “If we feel or suspect anything unusual, we dig into available resources to resolve any possible fraudulent dealings,” said Preston, reflecting upon the incident. The next step for both professionals was to get on the horn to the buyer’s agent and reiterate which forms of payment were permissible – including a bank wire or a cashier’s check. A three-way call between the agent, Brick City Title and the buyer followed shortly after.
Any title agent who has been in Preston’s and Breitenbecker’s shoes will likely be able to predict what happened next. The buyer was incensed about being called out for the package and that Brick City Title was asking for more information about the trust involved in executing the transaction. After some back and forth, the buyer clammed up and ended the call. Preston, Breitenbecker and Brick City Title then took stock of what happened. A consensus quickly emerged that the whole transaction was highly suspect. The experience of other parties in the transaction further supported this view, with both the agent and seller having their own misgivings about the buyer’s behavior and demeanor.
The final step taken was to send the transaction materials to Alliant National and to subsequently cancel the transaction – much to the relief of all involved. “The seller wasn’t surprised this buyer was fraudulent,” said Preston when discussing the aftermath, “and was glad that we uncovered what we found and cancelled the transaction so that [they] could move on.”
Lessons learned
As with any fraudulent transaction, the experience of Brick City Title provides important takeaways. It showcases how agents must not only adhere to their companies’ policies and procedures but also follow their gut instincts. In this case, the buyer’s behavior alone was a clear red flag. “I had a couple of conversations with the buyer and the conversations were not pleasant,” Preston explained. “This person had a very demanding and insulting demeanor which put me on guard.” Brick City Title’s experience also highlights how successful anti-fraud efforts are bigger than the actions of a single party. Instead, having a strong working relationship with every transaction stakeholder is the key to safe and secure transactions.
Through interfacing with its partners in the transaction, Brick City Title gained additional information that backed up their original assessment. The transaction was indeed fraudulent, and the way it was prevented is an essential reminder of how stopping fraud requires all hands on-deck.
From global economic trends to local housing affordability, numerous factors promise to shape the real estate market heading into the final quarter of the year. In general, the economic outlook both globally and within the U.S. remains subdued as we approach 2024, with many forecasters highlighting inflation and monetary policy as the drivers.
The Conference Board has predicted global GDP to grow by 2.9 percent in 2023, slowing to 2.5 percent in 2024. Emerging economies are expected to fare better than the U.S. and Europe, which are both anticipating lackluster performances once all is said and done this year. Although the U.S. economy has been surprisingly resilient in the aftermath of the pandemic, boasting strong employment numbers and healthy consumer spending, the Conference Board is anticipating a short and shallow recession in 2024, largely due to high interest rates, ongoing inflation, mounting consumer debt and dissipated consumer savings.
All of these factors are likely to prey on the housing market as well, and may serve to keep new homebuyers out of a market that has become increasingly unaffordable due to escalating interest rates and stubbornly limited inventory, which has kept prices elevated.
Chilly Q4 housing market
The housing market typically slows in the fourth quarter as buyers step away amid the approaching holidays. However, many industry pundits are predicting housing sales to slow faster than in years past due to the plethora of economic challenges homebuyers are facing.
In its September outlook report, Fannie Mae noted that mortgage origination activity had slowed to levels not seen since 2011.
“The new home market, which showed surprising strength over the first half of 2023, due in part to a limited inventory of existing homes for sale, may now be taking a breather,” Fannie Mae reported. “We forecast total home sales to be around 4.8 million in 2023, which would be the slowest annual pace since 2011 and 4.9 million in 2024. Similarly, our expectation for 2023 mortgage originations was downgraded from $1.60 trillion to $1.56 trillion in 2023 and from $1.92 trillion to $1.88 trillion in 2024.”
Further exacerbating the situation, some buyers are sitting out due to fears that housing has become overvalued and are hesitant to buy a home that may lose its value, if the market should take a sudden downturn. This is a regional reality, however. While the run-up in prices over the past few years in several western cities is ripe for a correction, many markets across much of the country increased at a moderate and sustainable pace, boding well for price stability.
New home sales decline
Despite builder concessions to offset high interest rates, new home sales continued to drop as the summer waned.
Sales of newly built, single-family homes in August fell 8.7% to a 675,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau.
“Builders continue to grapple with supply-side concerns in a market with poor levels of housing affordability,” said Alicia Huey, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. “Higher interest rates price out demand, as seen in August, but also increase the cost of financing for builder and developer loans, adding another hurdle for building.”
As a result of all of these factors, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in September fell five points to 40, according to NAHB.
Consumer confidence mixed
With employment numbers on solid ground to date, consumers generally express optimism not only about their own jobs, but about available prospects in the larger market.
On the downside, the Conference Board noted in September that overall consumer confidence fell for the second month in a row in September with consumers expressing concern about rising prices, the volatile political situation and rising interest rates.
Interest rates: The wrench in the gears
Recognizing that the ongoing interest rate hikes are paralyzing the market, NAHB, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and National Association of REALTORS (NAR) joined forces in October to ask the Federal Reserve to refrain from further rate hikes.
In their October 10 letter to the Fed, the organizations pointed out that a primary source of inflation has been housing, highlighting that in July alone, shelter inflation was responsible for 90% of the gain for consumer prices.
Rather than exacerbating the problem with higher interest rates, the organizations suggested the federal government should be focused on facilitating the construction of affordable housing.
“Sustained, widespread or further increases in interest rates make this economic goal more challenging by limiting lot development and home construction, exacerbating housing supply, and pricing out millions of households from the goal of homeownership,” the letter said.
In September, MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni acknowledged that the FOMC is still considering further rate hikes and in addition signaled that much-anticipated rate cuts would come later and slower than anticipated in 2024. But he remained optimistic that 2024 would see a turnaround.
“We expect that inflation will continue to drop closer to the Fed’s target, the job market will continue to slow, and that mortgage rates should begin to reflect that the Fed’s moves in 2024 will be cuts – not further increases,” Fratantoni said in his commentary. “This should provide some relief in terms of better affordability for potential homebuyers.”
Affordability
Limited affordable housing continues to plague the market overall. In part, homebuilders have begun to scale back the size and scope of amenities in their new builds to try to address the immediate issue of rising interest rates, but those efforts do not address the wider issue that can only be resolved by a concerted effort to address the problem on both the national and community level.
Affordable housing advocates offer several pathways to improved inventory, including incentivizing builders to build more affordable housing, increasing production of manufactured housing, addressing zoning and other restrictions that are preventing the creation of affordable housing where it is most needed, expanding the National Housing Trust Fund, and increasing resources for Federal affordable housing programs. The continued strength of the economy overall bodes well for a brighter 2024 for the housing market. However, the pace of recovery hinges on the FOMC effectively meeting its target to curb inflation, allowing interest rates to retreat. Concurrently, industry groups, local communities, and the federal government must tackle the pressing issue of housing affordability.
